Russia Can Afford to Take a Beating in Ukraine.
This is a summary. See the link below for actual numbers and details.
Despite staggering losses on the battlefield, Russia retains the strategic upper hand in terms of long-term endurance.
Its demographic advantage is critical: Russia has a much larger population than Ukraine and a significantly greater number of military-aged men to draw upon for continued mobilization.
While Ukraine is increasingly dependent on Western aid and volunteers, Russia can tap into a deeper reserve of manpower, allowing it to absorb casualties and replenish units at a pace Ukraine struggles to match.
This capacity isn’t just theoretical—Moscow is actively using it to sustain its offensive operations.
Equally important is Russia’s growing industrial resilience.
Its defense industry has adapted to wartime conditions, massively ramping up the production of artillery shells, drones, and armored vehicles.
In contrast, Western countries have been slow and inconsistent in scaling their own defense output, leaving Ukraine with shortages at critical moments.
The war has now shifted to a contest of attrition—and Russia is better positioned to win that contest.
Putin appears to be betting that, over time, Western political will to keep arming Ukraine will erode.
So far, that bet is paying off.
U.S. and European debates over funding, weapons deliveries, and long-term strategy have grown increasingly divisive and sluggish.
Meanwhile, Russia’s key partners—like China, Iran, and North Korea—continue to provide military and economic support with fewer political obstacles or public backlash.
This asymmetry gives Russia a strategic advantage that extends beyond the battlefield.
For now, Putin has little incentive to negotiate or de-escalate.
Russia can afford to keep fighting, taking losses, and slowly grinding forward.
