Any deal that Trump negotiates with Putin may have similar features to Munich: land for temporary peace. The West has already weakened its negotiating position by taking immediate NATO membership for Ukraine off the table. So what will happen if Putin renews his attack in one, three or five years?
A conference at London’s Chatham House in December kept returning to the idea that Europe was reliving a 1938 moment. In one sense, this could be a valid comparison.
When British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain flew to Munich in September of that year and sold out part of Czechoslovakia in return for ‘peace in our time’, there was a moment when much of Europe believed that it might escape a war with Germany.
Any deal in 2025 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is likely to have similar characteristics: land for temporary peace. But Putin’s ambitions will not have changed, although he may need three or more years for his army to recover before he sets off westwards again.