We now face the strong possibility that a ceasefire in Ukraine would only occur if the country’s political will collapses, leaving 25% of its territory and millions of Ukrainians under Russian occupation. Such an outcome would essentially hand Russia a victory, reinforcing their strategy of using nuclear threats, gradual territorial expansion ("salami slicing"), and attritional warfare to gain ground.
If this scenario unfolds, it is highly likely that Russia will re-arm, rebuild, and employ the same tactics again, leading to a third war. Meanwhile, it seems improbable that Ukraine will secure security guarantees from any Western nuclear power or gain entry into NATO. Existing security assurances signed with Western nations would likely prove insufficient to deter Russia from launching next war.
Given this reality, Ukraine must seriously consider developing its own nuclear deterrent. Historically, Ukraine played a central role in the Soviet Union’s ballistic missile and warhead production, was key in enriching fissile material, and even developed Permissive Action Link technology for Soviet nuclear weapons control. Ukraine possesses the know-how, infrastructure, and access to modern, widely available technologies—far more affordable and accessible than during the Cold War.
Ukraine should take lessons from countries like Iran and North Korea, and begin preparing a contingency plan to develop a small, credible nuclear arsenal before Russia can re-arm and launch a third war.
