Auto translation from Rozvidka Noem OSINT: ❗️ This post on the channel is the most important one in its entire history. All other questions, topics, and criticisms pale in comparison to the existential questions raised here. I don't consider this an exaggeration. I urge you to support and share this.
All information is supported by sources via hyperlinks.
Everything indicates that the Russian Federation will not stop the war and, on the contrary, wants to make it even more total, even more bloody, and even more brutal.
Data I have received from various structures within the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates that the Russian Federation plans to involve up to half a million people in the war through mobilization (currently, the majority are contract soldiers).
There is only a couple of months left. This will happen in the fall.
If they see that it is working, they will involve even more. Because they have plenty of people. Especially from other countries.
There is no data to suggest that Russians are planning to resist this.
There are no hints of a military coup in the Russian Federation.
There are no actions to remove Putin from power.
I estimate the probability at 90% that the Russians will swallow this wave of mobilization just as they did the previous one, despite their grumbling and dissatisfaction. And, likely, they will swallow the next ones as well.
They are incapable of any meaningful protest. They will not say what they think. They are not afraid of the lack of fuel, food, internet, communication, or anything else. They want nothing and will do nothing.
So, let's get back to reality.
There are 22-25 million people left in Ukraine, according to estimates (https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-obschestvo/tse-katastrofa-ministr-ulyutin-ozvuchiv-skilki-ukraintsiv-zhivut-na-pidkontrolnij-teritorii.htm) by the Minister of Social Policy Ulyutin in May 2026. At best, 28 million.
Let's remove women (https://m.statisticstimes.com/demographics/country/ukraine-demographics.php), children (https://spzh.eu/en/news/94534-in-ukraine-mortality-rate-is-four-times-higher-than-birth-rate-statistics), pensioners (https://cxid.media/news/serednia-pensiia-v-ukraini-zrosla-do-7-273-hrn-chvert-pensioneriv-otrymuie-menshe-4-tysiach/), and people with disabilities (https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4132985-cerez-vijnu-kilkist-ludej-z-invalidnistu-v-ukraini-zrosla-na-600-tisac-predstavnica-ombudsmena-v-oon.html) from this list. Let's only consider men aged 25-60 who remain in Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Formal estimates of the number of men aged 25-60 in some analyses reached approximately 11 million (based on a larger/older database), but the actual number present in Ukrainian-controlled territory is significantly lower due to:
- combat losses;
- missing persons;
- those in the temporarily occupied territories (hundreds of thousands of people), a large portion of whom will likely not return to the army;
- emigration abroad (including the unknown number who have left illegally, which is impossible to calculate);
- occupied territories;
- those already mobilized;
- those unfit for service due to health reasons (estimates 1-1.5 million in public calculations).
Estimated number of men aged 18-60 present: 5-7 million (a rough estimate taking into account the age-gender structure and migration abroad).
Mobilization reserve after all deductions (unfit, reserved, already serving, abroad, etc.) in public (https://rozvytok.in.ua/skilky-cholovikiv-pryzovnogo-viku-v-ukrayini/) expert calculations in 2026 often amounts to 3.5-4 million.
The most important and pressing question that every Ukrainian should be asking the government is: WHAT ARE WE PLANNING TO DO ABOUT THIS?
Okay, the Russian Federation will bury, obliterate, turn into fertilizer another million, two, three. How many UKRAINIANS of conscription age will be left?
AGAIN – 4 MILLION CONSCRIPTS AT BEST!!!
What will we oppose to a total mobilization, for example, if it happens, instead of the half a million people they plan to involve in the first stage?
This is not about Fedorov, damn it. The question is that there will be no Ukrainians left if, in the coming months, the country does not experience a more radical technological breakthrough.
Every single Ukrainian must now think about how to support the mass production of robotic systems, even more mass production of all types of drones, and especially those that inflict the greatest losses on the Russians on the battlefield, those that completely replace humans on the battlefield, those that destroy logistics and the deep rear.
Every single Ukrainian must focus on this; there are no more important issues in the country. Sorry if you think this is an exaggeration; let this be my personal assessment.
If you continue to whine, maim, and kidnap people on the streets, trying to plug holes on the front with frightened people, we will LOSE the war in the next couple of years.
Either we will achieve a radically different level technologically, or we will cease to exist. There are no other options, or they have too little chance of success.
